by In Friday’s first game, Iran defeated Wales 2-0 after sensational late goals from Rouzbeh Cheshmi and Ramin Rezaeian at the Al Rayyan Stadium.
Iran had the better chances, hitting the woodwork several times, but despite Wayne Hennessey’s late red card, luck seemed to be smiling on the Welshmen. However, Cheshmi’s strike from outside the box in the 99th minute gave Iran a famous victory, while Rezaeian then completed a counterattack.
Although England need little more importance against the United States – more on that later – the result highlighted what the USMNT must do if they hope to escape the group stage.
The USMNT has successfully reached the knockout rounds in six of the ten Worlds tournaments for which they have qualified.
Will they go through if they beat England?
Not quite – but almost. That puts the USMNT on four points, England on three points, Iran on three points and Wales on one point.
Group B if USMNT wins
| team | W | D | L | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
England |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
Iran |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
Wales |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
The USMNT is playing Iran in their last group game and a point in that game would guarantee them progress, while a win would win them the group. England play Wales in the final game of the group.
However, if Iran beat the USMNT, Gregg Berhalter’s side would be eliminated if England beat Wales.
What about a tie?
It makes the situation pretty bad. England would have four points, Iran three, USMNT two points and Wales only one.
Group B in USMNT tie
| team | W | D | L | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
England |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
Iran |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
USMNT |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Wales |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Simply put, a win against Iran would take the USMNT further, but whether they would do so as group winners depends on England’s result against Wales.
Any other result, however, will see the American team eliminated.
Is the USMNT out with a loss?
Here it gets more difficult. Their destiny would be taken out of their hands.
Group B if USMNT loses
| team | W | D | L | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
England |
2 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
|
Iran |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
USMNT |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Wales |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
England will advance as group winners with six points, Iran with three points and Wales and the USMNT with one point each.
The USMNT must beat Iran and then hope Wales doesn’t beat England. If Wales beats England, the USMNT requires their goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) to be better than Wales’ as both teams would be level by four points.
Who could the USMNT play in the knockouts?
They play against one of the sides from Group A – which includes hosts Qatar, the Netherlands, Ecuador and Senegal.
If the USMNT finish second, the Netherlands will be their most likely opponent. They have lost four of their five games against the Dutch but most recently won 4-3 in 2015.
If the USMNT wins the group, their most likely opponents are Ecuador or Senegal, who play in the final round of group games on Tuesday to decide progression. They have won five, drawn five and lost five against Ecuador, but have never played against Senegal.
What is the story of England vs USMNT at the World Cup?
England only participated in their first World Cup in 1950, and their very first game in that tournament was against the United States, who entered the game in Belo Horizonte as massive underdogs.
However, a goal from USMNT striker Joe Gaetjens in the 38th minute gave his side a famous victory and saw England eliminated from the group stage.
England have only lost to the United States once more – a friendly in 1993 – but met them again at the 2010 World Cup. Although Steven Gerrard gave England an early lead, a Rob Green error allowed Clint Dempsey to level. The USMNT would win the group.
The Athletics Oli Kay took a closer look at the rivalry here.
(Photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)
