by The Philadelphia Phillies have landed a coveted star shortstop. The Phillies and two-time All-Star Trea Turner have agreed an 11-year, $300 million deal. reports ESPN. The team has not yet confirmed the signing. The contract contains a full no-trade clause and no opt-out clauses.
The signing with the defending National League champions reunites Turner with Bryce Harper, his 2015-18 Washington Nationals teammate. Harper even said last August, “Turner’s my favorite player in the league, it’s not even close.” Chances are Harper has been lobbying the Philadelphia front office on Turner’s behalf for the past few weeks. Turner also played with Kyle Schwarber at the Nationals in 2021 before both were traded as of deadline.
The 11-year term has an average annual value of $27.3 million, and that’s important because the Competitive Balance Sheet Tax (CBT) payroll is calculated using the average annual value. Turner likely could have secured more than $30 million a year on a shorter-term contract, but the 11-year extension gives the Phillies more breathing room in terms of the CBT in the near future.
Turner, 29, is one of the most electrifying players in the sport. He is a power/speed threat who penned a .298/.343/.466 batting line with 39 doubles, 21 homers and 27 steals in 30 attempts for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022. Add above-average defense to an extra position and Turner was worth 5.7 WAR per 162 games in his career. He’s a real superstar.
Turner is likely to take over at shortstop while Bryson Stott slips to second base, his expected long-term position. Stott played well enough as a rookie in 2022, especially after Rob Thomson took over as manager, but players like Turner don’t become available often and the Phillies are right in the middle of their World Series window, so Stott will be switching positions .
Our RJ Anderson ranked Turner as the fourth best free agent available this offseason and the second best shortstop behind Carlos Correa. Here is his cover letter:
Turner has been the second-best shortstop in the majors for the past three seasons and has a higher OPS+ than everyone except Fernando Tatis Jr., whose production has had half as many plate appearances due to injuries and suspensions. He’s a dynamic offensive player, an elite runner with above-average raw power, capable of a 20-20 performance every season. Turner has an aggressive approach to the plate that can easily expand his zone, but it hasn’t worked against him yet, and besides, missed balls are an opportunity for him to play an infield single. The more concerning issue with Turner’s game is his defense. He committed 16 errors last season, easily the most of the top free agent shortstops. (Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson combined for 26.) Errors are an imperfect measure, although it’s reasonable to assume he might have to slide to the other side of the bag in the future (a position he’s already familiar with since he played). there out of respect for Corey Seager). Regardless, Turner has been a prolific hitter throughout his career and there’s no reason to expect that to change any time soon.
As good as Turner is – and he is excellent – it’s worth noting that speed doesn’t usually age well. Aside from the 60-game pandemic season in 2020, Turner’s stolen base tries have gradually declined from 54 in 2017 to 52 (2018) to 40 (2019) to 37 (2021) to 30 (2022). He’s doing enough other things to remain an elite player, but he’s starting to age as a stolen base threat.
FanGraphs currently estimates Philadelphia’s 2023 CBT salary total at $217.8 million with Turner, below the $233 million threshold. The Phillies still expect to add at least one starting pitcher, not to mention bullpen help and overall depth. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are a year away from free agency and the club could also consider with both extensions.
Turner turned down the qualifying $19.6 million offer earlier this offseason. Having paid off CBT in 2022, the Phillies will lose their second- and fifth-biggest draft picks of 2023, as well as $1 million in international bonus funds for the 2024 contract term to sign Turner. The Dodgers get a compensation draft pick for Turner after the fourth round for also paying CBT.
